EUR/USD

(240 minutes bars)

The EURUSD has slightly exceeded the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 1,5144 and is now testing the March low of 1,3270. Since price has exceeded 1,3250, the previously preferred count is no longer. The alternate, in which the rally from the low is a complex double three (2 zigzags), is now preferred. The 2 zigzags would be equal at 1,3420 but we could get a top before then as RSI is overbought and divergent on multiple time frames.

US Dollar Index

Prices have taken out support at 82.11, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 4/12-6/7 upswing. Still, positive RSI divergence continues to hint that a rebound is in the works in the near term, albeit from a lower base. Continued selling is eyeing a move toward April’s swing low at 80.07.

Crude Oil

The bullstook out resistance June’s swing high ($79.38), with prices now set to challenge the upper boundary of a rising channel set from May, now at $82.21. A push above that will expose the 2010 top at $86.84.

Gold

Prices are re-testing support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line established from the low in February, with a break higher exposing the top of a falling channel established from the swing high in June (now at $1199.43). However, a Shooting Star candlestick setup hints a move lower may be in the cards from here, with initial support at the $1170.00 figure.

Source: Dailyfx.com