Corn and Oat

+40,7% in just more than one month!
Last June 9, the corn  reached 4,25 $ the bushel on the CBOT, and went to 5,98$/bu on July 15.

Analyst didn't forecast an increase in corn price, except if there is a climatic disaster! :-)

The largest world corn producers of the northern hemisphere are suffering

Canada, too much rain! A fifth of its production should be decimated.

In Western Europe, the drought threaten. In France (estimates of production with a fall of 3,5%) same thing with Germany.

In Russia, already 20% of the production (nine million hectares) are destroyed. Because of the drought. However Russia is just the fourth world corn exporter...
(As for Kazakhstan, because of the dry weather, it is a third of the production which is likely to be destroyed.
And the Ukrainian, too much rain, impossible to collect the corn.)

 

With a high RSI (76, overbought), a return under the 550c/bu is possible, with a support at 510. (for long that this support remain untouched we are in a bullish trend)

▪ the objectives are 645/675. Indeed, these levels are the highest reached last year.

▪ an alternative scenario: if the 510 support did not hold, corn will go down to 465, its next support.

So there is a potential of short-term rise, but remain careful about mid-term, stocks of corn are full and this is not sure that the corn market will be affected by the drought this year.

On the other hand, for the long run, corn remain definitively bull (Decrease in production, drought, increase of  the world population...).

 But what about Oat?
--> a high potential of grow
+40% in just one week! From June 9 to June 15 Oat increased by +40%.
Why?
Because of Russia's worst drought in 50 years. Russia is the biggest producer of oat in the world (20%).

Oat consolidates to its 275 support, before it goes up again.