Copper

Copper:

From the crash of the 2008 autumn and to its highest in last April, copper regained 182%!

And Since the mini-crash of the markets in last May/June, it rebounded by 20%.

The offer is insufficient, BHP records Q2 2010  a fall of 5% of its production of copper over one year. And expects to see lowering its production by 5 to 10% over the next 12 months!

In the same time, the demand increases.
According to the ICSG (International Copper Group Study), the copper world demand over one year grew by 5,8% in April, whereas the offer only follows to the constant rate of 5,5%.

And China has not indexed its copper stocks, so we have to scan the volumes of copper which it imports.

In the Short Run: copper will remain strongly correlated to the equity market. And thus with the evolution of the world economic growth.

Indicators for the short run: the increase of the BDI, a decrease of LME and Shanghai stocks.

Any decrease under the 6 000 $/6 100 $ the tonne will be a good opportunity to invest in copper.

A prediction from Credit Suisse analyst Michael Shillaker, of $10,000 a tonne ($4.54/lb) in 2012.
Indeed copper has already touched close to $9,000 a tonne back in the heady days of 2008 before the bottom fell out of the market... (It suggests a big rise in mining company share prices over the next two years, Micahel is looking for around a 30% increase overall by the year end and as much as 100% or more for some stocks over the next two to three years.)

And always keep in mind that there is no doubt that when China will restart its massive copper consumption copper will be able to reach its highest. (if there is no double dip W)